USD/JPY: Still watching out for reciprocal tariff – OCBC

USD/JPY fell sharply as reciprocal tariff delay led to a turnaround in UST yields. The pair was last seen at 152.60 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation likely in the interim

"USD/JPY fell, last at 152.60 levels. Daily momentum is flat while RSI fell. Consolidation likely in the interim. Support at 152.50/80 levels (100, 200 DMAs), 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high), 150 levels. Resistance at 154.30, 155.30 levels (50 DMA)."

"We believe Japan may not be spared. When it comes to automobiles, Japanese cars are amongst the top 5 most popular in US and Korean cars make it to the top 10 list. On agricultural products, Japan has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat."

"The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods and JPY may come under pressure in this scenario. In fact, Trump yesterday ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, singling out Japan and South Korea as nations that he believes are taking advantage of the US."