Gold: Beware of a reversal in safe haven flows – TDS

The yellow metal entered into new territory — dry-powder positioning, which measures per-trader exposure, is off the charts, analysts at TD Securities reports.  

Key quotes

“With more than 56bp of rate cuts pricedin by year-end and equities deeply in the red following some signs of herding into momentum trades in tech stocks, the fear factor has further driven a swarm of safe-haven flows towards gold.” 

“The structural bid in gold should keep investment capital flowing towards the yellow metal, driven by real rate suppression from global central banks who remain willing to let inflation overshoot for some time.” 

“The risk of a near-term pullback is as high as its ever been. In this context, we expect flows from CTAs to remain muted as algorithmic trend followers remain well positioned for the precious metal bull market.”